This may come as a shock to cynics who say nobody lives in Detroit anymore.
Even after a half-century of people leaving, Detroit's population density -- the number of residents per square mile -- remains roughly twice that of such Sunbelt havens as Phoenix and Houston. Detroit has about 6,000 residents per square mile compared with 3,000 in those sprawling warm-weather cities.
An even more dramatic comparison: Jacksonville, Fla., with a population roughly the same as Detroit's, around 800,000, sprawls out over an area roughly five times Detroit's 139-square-mile footprint, giving Jacksonville a population density of just 1,000 -- or a sixth of Detroit's concentration of people.
What those figures convey is that population gains and losses are by no means a simple story of winners and losers. Detroit today contains densely populated urban districts along with many areas of rural-like vacancy.
• MAPS: Detroit's population density data
As Mayor Dave Bing and a host of public and private planners struggle to reinvent the city, density will play a key role in their decision-making.
Today's density to shape look of Detroit of future
If a single word could capture today's myriad attempts to redefine and reinvent Detroit as a smaller but better city, that word may be "density."
It's a word with many aspects and measurable in many ways that capture the intensity of activity in a given area -- people per square mile, housing units per block, motor vehicle traffic, commercial activity. Density is what you need to know to reshape a city and plot its future.
In decades past, Detroit attempted a sort of faith-based redevelopment strategy -- big projects such as stadiums and casinos, believing that "if you build it they will come." But to get "them" to stay and live, civic leaders are now digging deep into measures of density.
"Why it's so critically important is because the city has very limited resources," said Steve Ogden, director of the Next Detroit Neighborhood Initiative. "With those limited resources, you have to be more strategic in how and why and where you spend them. What you hope to get for your investment is impact."
In short, concentrate public service where the people are or where you want them to be.
That's why density studies are getting a huge amount of attention. A young nonprofit organization, Data Driven Detroit, headed by demographer Kurt Metzger, has been developing maps and reports portraying density in Detroit from all angles -- not just population and housing but even income levels and educational attainment.
Metzger's group is hardly alone. The Kresge Foundation, the nonprofit Community Development Advocates of Detroit, and academics at Lawrence Technological University and the University of Detroit Mercy are all mapping data and developing criteria for measuring the strengths and weaknesses of various neighborhoods.
The most obvious indicator -- population density -- is only one measure.
"We also look at quality-of-life indicators," Ogden said. "Green space, a performing school, is it near a major road line or freeway? Is it near any shopping? Are there city services that regularly service that neighborhood?"
The goal of all this study, roughly put, is to target the most vibrant districts -- those with higher levels of density -- for even more development, to build on the city's assets.
Constance Bodurow, an assistant professor at Lawrence Tech who has spent three years developing 3D maps of southwest Detroit, said such density indicators are a useful tool to help understand the city.
"Data in and of itself cannot and should not drive civic decision-making," she said. What's needed is "more of a civic dialogue around what we value in the city, instead of the more mercurial development process that we've been familiar with in the city all these years."
Strategy by proximity
To understand how this works, consider Southwest Housing, a nonprofit agency that rehabilitates dilapidated buildings in southwest Detroit. The group started out 12 years ago looking for spots where it could make a real difference, generating further new private investment, instead of simply scattering its dollars at random.
"There were plenty of vacant buildings to choose from," said Tim Thorland, executive director. "We needed stuff that was strategically located."
Among the factors weighed: Proximity to I-75 for easy access, existing population density and nearness to Vernor, the backbone of the Hispanic district.
"There had to be the opportunity to invest next door, and next door to that, with private market dollars coming in," Thorland said.
Southwest Housing chose two locations on which to concentrate: The intersections of Vernor and Grand Boulevard, and Vernor and Lawndale. It began buying up vacant structures. In 12 years, the agency has redeveloped 25 to 30 buildings in those areas, pumping in about $80 million. Private investment followed, making the Vernor strip one of Detroit's most vibrant.
Since no neighborhood offers all of the desired indicators, using data is more of an art than a science, Ogden said.
"This is obviously pretty subjective work," Ogden said. "You can't compare a community as small as, say, Boston Edison (that) would not have the amount of amenities as Grandmont Rosedale has. We have to be careful ranking communities just on that.
"Though data is critically important, it is just a tool and not the answer," he added. "Nothing beats boots on the ground and local intel from neighborhoods."
All land has value
If it's easier to spot the districts with multiple strong indicators on which to build -- thriving stores, growing population -- choosing which districts to mothball or to shrink can be a lot tougher. Some parts of Detroit with low population density, like the area north of I-94 between I-75 on the west and Conner on the east -- may not have very many residents but boast industrial assets, including railroad lines, highway access and dozens of empty factory and warehouse buildings.
"It's not about 'We have to abandon here and build up here,' " Thorland said. "Every square inch of land in this city has value. We need to identify what that value is."
Indeed, most of the people actually working on plans to reinvent Detroit talk not of shrinking the city or abandoning neighborhoods but of repurposing certain areas for new, less dense, uses.
For example, some low-population land could be converted to solar or wind energy farms, providing power for the rest of the city, or could be given over to urban agriculture or reforestation.
Meanwhile, in neighborhoods with lots of abandonment but still a lot of homes remaining, another strategy that might arise from a density analysis would be to landscape vacant lots to create greenways -- non-motorized routes for strollers and bikers.
Bodurow said density analysis can lead to new uses for all of Detroit's districts.
"Every neighborhood, no matter what the profile, has a role in the future sustainable urban form in Detroit," she said.
Contact JOHN GALLAGHER: 313-222-5173 or gallagher@freepress.com
